Tony Evers leads in Democratic primary for governor, but many voters don't know candidates

MADISON - State Schools Superintendent Tony Evers leads the field of Democrats running for governor, but nearly two in five primary voters have yet to make up their minds, according to a survey released Wednesday. 

Evers led the field with 31% in the survey by the Marquette University Law School. None of his opponents cracked 10%. 

"Evers certainly stands out as having an advantage — but lots of undecided," said poll director Charles Franklin.

No other candidate has yet to break out, but Evers lead is "hardly commanding," Franklin told reporters. 

With the candidates largely unknown — 38% of primary voters didn't know who they would vote for — TV ads likely will be crucial in determining who can get through the Aug. 14 primary. 

Just as the poll results were being released, former state Democratic Party Chairman Matt Flynn announced he planned to become the first Democrat to get on the air in Milwaukee, Madison, Green Bay and a market his campaign did not specify.

His ad, which pillories GOP Gov. Scott Walker for a $4 billion taxpayer-funded incentive package for Foxconn Technology Group, is to begin airing Friday.

Flynn campaign manager Bryan Kennedy didn't say how much money Flynn was putting behind the ad.

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After Evers, the two who performed best in the poll — with just 6% each — were firefighters union president Mahlon Mitchell and state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout of Alma.

Behind them were Flynn (5%), Madison Mayor Paul Soglin (4%), liberal activist Mike McCabe (3%), former state Rep. Kelda Roys (3%) and attorney Josh Pade (0%).

Marquette's June poll showed Walker ahead of all his potential opponents in head-to-head matchups. In the tightest scenario, Walker led McCabe 44% to 42%. He held much wider leads over the others, such as an 8-point advantage over Roys. 

Voters were not asked about direct matchups with Walker in the latest poll. 

In the latest poll, 47% of voters approved of the job Walker was doing and 45% disapproved. The approval numbers are down slightly from last month, when 49% approved of him and 47% disapproved of him.

Last month was the first time since October 2014 that his approval rating was better than his disapproval rating.

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The latest poll came two days after the candidates submitted campaign finance reports that showed the Democrats are running shoestring campaigns and have far less than Walker, who had $5.9 million in his campaign account at the end of June.

Those reports showed Roys had put more than $350,000 of her own money into the race and had about $668,000 on hand, the most of any Democrat. She was followed by Flynn (about $403,000), Mitchell (about $368,000) and Evers (about $307,000).

Roys said recently she would begin running ads shortly and Evers' campaign manager, Maggie Gau, on Wednesday said Evers would be on the air soon as well. Mitchell has not given any indication of whether or when he would run ads.

Walker has been on the air for months. 

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In his ad, Flynn called Walker's incentive package that landed Foxconn "corrupt" and a "corporate welfare giveaway." He said he would sue to stop the deal on his first day as governor so he could put more money toward schools, health care and roads.

Views on Foxconn are split. Forty-six percent of respondents in the latest poll believed the state is paying more to bring the company to Wisconsin than it is worth, while 39% believed the state will get at least as much value out of the plant as it invests in it.

Just 30% of poll respondents believed the deal would directly benefit businesses in the area where they lived, while 58% believed it would not.

On transportation, 40% said the roads and highways in their area were excellent or good and 59% said they were fair or poor. Voters were more evenly divided on what they thought of roads in Madison and Milwaukee, while voters in the rest of the state strongly believed their roads were in lousy shape, with two-thirds of them calling them fair or poor. 

In the last poll, Evers led the Democratic field with 25%. Next behind him, with 7% each, were Flynn, McCabe and Soglin.

They were followed by Vinehout (5%),  businessman Andy Gronik (4%), Mitchell (4%), Roys (2%), state Rep. Dana Wachs (2%) and Pade (1%).

Gronik and Wachs dropped out of the race days after that poll was released. 

The latest poll was conducted July 11 through Friday and included 305 voters who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.6 percentage points.

In all, 800 registered voters were polled (including voters who don't plan to vote in the Democratic primary). Those results — such as for Walker's approval rating — have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

The questions on roads and Foxconn did not include the full sample and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.

Bill Glauber of the Journal Sentinel staff contributed to this report.